Methods of Risk Analysis and Management

Methods of Risk epitome and ManagementRISK outline METHODSRisk management brook be divided into four step jeopardy identification, adventure sagacity, fortune control, and risk records. In recent years, studies have mostly foc somad on the risk assessment. Risk assessment is to analyze and measure the size of risks in order to provide information to risk control. Four steps be included in the risk assessment.According to the publications of risk identification and build an appropriate numeral model.through expert surveys, historical records, extrapolation, etc. to obtain the necessary, basic information or info available, and then choose the appropriate mathematical methods to quantify the information.Choose proper models and abbreviation methods to deal with the data and place the models according to the specific circumstances.Determine the size of risks according to certain criteria. In the risk assessment extrapolation, indispensable estimation, probability distri bution depth psychology and other methods atomic number 18 used to obtain some basic data or information. Further data analysis often use following basic theory and methods story analysis method, mode cangue logical analysis method, Monte Carlo simulation, the gray frame theory, artificial neural communicate method, fault steer analysis, Bayesian theory, an influence diagram method and Markov process theory.We can divide the methods into soft analysis and Quantitative Analysis.Qualitative analysis1. Fault Tree AnalysisFault Tree AnalysisFault Tree Analysis (Fault Tree Analysis, FTA) can be used for qualitative analysis of risk and can also be used for quantitative analysis. It is mainly used for large-scale complicated administration reliability and safety analysis. It is also an powerful method to Unification reliability and safety analysis, through hardware, software, environment, merciful factors.FTA is drawing a variety of possibilities of failure in system failure anal ysis, from whole to part, according to the direct structure. Fault tree analysis using tree form, the systemThe failure of components and composition of the fault system are connected. We are always using fault tree in qualitative or quantitative risk analysis. The difference in them is that the quantitative fault tree is good in structure and it requires use of the same rigorous logic as the formal fault tree, but qualitative fault tree is not. Fault tree analysis system is based on the target which event is not hoped to happen (c eached the top event), one level d profess from the top event analysis of the direct start out of their own events (call low event), according to the logical relationship between the upper and lower case, the analysis results are obtained.2. matter Tree AnalysisEvent tree analysis (event tree analysis, ETA) also known as decision tree analysis, is another important method of risk analysis. It is the events of a given system, the analysis of the event s whitethorn cause a series of results, and thus evaluates the possibility of the system. Event tree is given an initial event all possible ways and means of development, every aspect of the event tree events (except the top incidents) are the execution of instrument of certain functions of measures to prevent accidents, and all have binary outcomes (success or failure). While the event tree illustrates the sundry(a) incidents causes of the accident sequence congregation. Through various intermediate steps in the accident sequence group can organize the complexity of the relationship between the initial incident and the probability of systemic risk reduction measurement, and identify the accident sequence group. So we can calculate the probability of each of the severalise sequence of events go alongred.3. Cause-Consequence AnalysisCause and consequence analysis is a combination of fault tree analysis and event tree analysis. It uses the cause analysis (fault tree analysis) and the result analysis (event tree analysis), CCA aims to identify the ambit of events leading to unexpected consequences, according to the probability of occurrence of several(predicate) events from CCA diagram to calculate the probability of different results, then the risk level of the system can be determined.4. approach Risk AnalysisPreliminary risk analysis or hazard analysis is a qualitative technique which involves a condition analysis of the event sequences which could transform a potential hazard into an accident. In this technique, the possible undesirable events are identified first and then analyzed separately. 2 For each undesirable events or hazards, possible improvements, or preventive measures are then formulated.This method provides a basis for determining hazard categories and which analysis methods are most suitable. It is proved valuable in the working surrounding to which activities lacking safety measures can be readily identified.5. Hazard and Operability s tudies (HAZOP)The HAZOP technique was origined in the early 1970s by Imperial Chemical Industries Ltd. HAZOP is foremost defined as the application of a formal systematic critical examination of the process and applied science intentions of new or existing facilities to assess the hazard potential that arise from deviation in design specifications and the consequential effects on the facilities as a whole.2This technique is usually performed using a nonplus of guidewords NO/NOT, MORE OR/LESS OF, AS WELL AS, PART OF REVERSE, AND OTHER THAN. These guidewords, a scenario that may result in a hazard or an operational problem is identified. Consider the possible ply problems in a process line, the guide word MORE OF will correspond to high period rate, while that for LESS THAN, low flow rate. The consequences of the hazard and measures to reduce the frequency with which the hazard will occur are then discussed. This technique is accepted widely in the process industries. It is mostl y regarded as an effective tool for plant safety and operability improvements. Detailed procedures on how to perform the technique are available in some relevant literatures.Quantitative AnalysisFault Tree AnalysisIt is explained in the Qualitative analysis. anticipate valueExpected value is the possible outcome times the probability of its occurrence. An expected value shows the dowry of yielding a target in a business.Sensitivity analysisIn sensitivity analysis shows how the outcome changes in response of a particular variable change. One can get result from optimistic, most likely and pessimistic values. An example of inputs for sensitivity analysis is the material and labor cost that can be much fluctuated.